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After 12 months of ups and downs of 10 -year US debt yields will start from the "origin" last year?

2024-03-05 02:21:33 005



What makes many debt markets feel dramatic is breaking news websitethat after 12 months after experiencing violent fluctuations and frequent fake actions,At the beginning of 2024, the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States set off from last year's "origin".

The transactions in the past year are like a farce.This is known as the "anchor of global asset pricing" -the interest rate that is often regarded as the benchmark of the global market and the US mortgage interest rate benchmark.Over the past 16 years, it has exceeded the 5%mark for the first time.In the last 2 months of the year, it fell at a high speed at a high speed at a high -speed posture of decades.

As of the closing day of the last trading day of 2023, the 10 -year US debt yield was reported 3.879%, which was only slightly higher than the closing level of 3.875%in 2022.

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Behind these ups and downs, it reflects wider volatility.Although market sources at the beginning of this year have expected that the US economy will fall into decline, it turns out that the economy is still tough. The tightness of the employment market has suspended interest rate hikes after the July meeting, which caught a lot of Wall Street strategists.Of course, many people still believe that the long -expected economic slowdown and interest rate cuts will occur in 2024, and even some twists and turns in the process.

"As far as the US debt yield curve is far -end, you obviously earn a ticket interest, but after the pressure adjustment, it feels like you still lose money in the bond market in 2023. It is expected to be a turbulent one in 2024.Years. "Brandywine Global Investment Management's investment group manager Jack McIntyre said.

At the end of the year's yield, the trend of the US debt was climaxed.In October, the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds rose to 5.019%.

However, the weak economic data promoted the market rebound, causing the fund managers to escape.At the end of the year, the prosperity of the bond market was strengthened in mid -December. At that time, the Fed unexpectedly hinted that the possibility of cutting interest rates in 2024 rose.At present, the market is expected that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate reduction will exceed 150 basis points in 2024, and traders will increasingly bet that the Fed will first cut interest rates by March.

thus,Despite the year -on -year, 10 -year US debt yields have not changed, but the significant rise of the end of the year still makes the Bloomberg US Treasury bond index rose about 4.1%in 2023. This is the first annual increase in the index since 2020.

The following are some major statistics of the US bond market in the past year:

The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index returns 4.1%throughout the year.The month of the index is November (3.5%), December (3.4%), March (2.9%), and January (2.5%); the worst is February (-2.3%) and September in September(-2.2%);

In 2023, the tone changes in the yield of US bonds in each period are: 2-year US debt yield-18bp, 5-year US bond yield-16bp, 10-year US debt yield+0.4bp, 30-year US debtHigh yield+6.5bp;

The 10 -year US debt yield has reached a minimum level of 3.25%in April, and in October reached a 16 -year peak of nearly 5.02%;

The price of petroleum and gasoline is a key factor behind the fluctuations of the US debt; the price of WTI crude oil futures is about $ 80 at the beginning of the year, and the peak of the year at the end of September, close to $ 95, the annual closing price is about $ 72;

The inflation expectations of implicit rates of inflation preservation bonds in the United States are expected to decline, and the five -year profit and loss balance rate will reach the lowest level since 2021.

Other main sovereign bond markets also appeared similar to US debt in 2023. The 10 -year Treasury bond yields in Britain, Germany and Japan have fallen from the year of the year in the second half of the year.It will turn to interest rate cuts in 2024;

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