发新帖

European economy: Growth resistance is not small, and the recovery process is worried

2024-02-09 17:12:45 836



   Affected by the "long tail effect" of the new crown epidemic and the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, the European economy was fully pressed in 2022.The gradual decline in energy prices and the relief of the bottleneck of the supply chain made the European economy improved slightly in the first half of 2023, but the continuous and continuous tightening of the geopolitical tension and the continuous tightening of monetary policy caused its economic improvement to slow down again in the second half of the year.At present, European business activities continue to be sluggish, investment and consumption confidence are suppressed, and European economic growth has fallen into a stagnation state.Faced with multiple uncertainties over the external environment and the continuous internal inhibitory policy, the stall pressure faced by the European economy has continued to increase, and the prospect of the overall recovery momentum is worrying.

In 2023, economic performance is sluggish, and growth faces multiple resistance

   According to the EU Statistical Bureau, the EU economy in the first three quarters of 2023 was 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively, and the growth rates of the euro zone during the same period were 1.2%, 0.5%, and 0.1%, respectively, showing a significant slowdown trend.At the same time, the economic growth rates of the EU in the first three quarters were 0.1%, 0 and 0.1%, respectively. After the euro zone hovered in the first two quarters, the third quarter decreased by 0.1%.For the first time since the fourth quarter.Although the gradual decline of the base effect affects the slowdown of the year -on -year growth rate to a certain extent, the contraction of the month -on -month growth rate further confirms that the European economy is losing power and the prospect of recovery is not optimistic.

   On the one hand, high inflation and high interest rates have doubled European economic growth.The surge in energy prices has led European inflation rates to hit high highs in 2022.Although energy cost pressure has been significantly relieved in 2023, the European inflation structure has changed from the past energy prices to the general increase in prices in multi -field.The spread of inflation not only affects the inflation expectations of European consumers, but also promotes the higher salary pressure. Under inertia, European inflation risks have not been lifted.At the same time, in order to cope with inflation, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates 10 times since July 2022, not only inhibiting production, investment, consumption and other fields, but also high interest rates have also increased the burden on the debt of many European governments.Economic capacity formation is obviously constrained.

   On the other hand, the role of trade driving has weakened.In the first three quarters of 2023, the EU exports were 649.82 billion, 636.85 billion, and 614.61 billion euros, respectively, and the scale decreased quarterly.The exports of the euro zone also performed as badly. In September 2023, the export volume of the euro zone was 235.8 billion euros, a year -on -year decrease of 9.3%, and the year -on -year increase in six consecutive months was negative.Although from the perspective of the trade structure, the trade balance of the European Union and the euro zone was reversed. In the second quarter, the surplus was 2.67 billion and 5.71 billion euros, and the surplus in the third quarter was 13.16 billion and 22.12 billion euros, showing an enlarged trend, but the surplus expanded, but the surplus expandedIt mainly comes from contraction of the import scale.From January to September 2023, the imports of the European Union and the euro zone were 1.9 trillion and 2.1 trillion euros, respectively, a year -on -year decrease of 15.2%and 12.2%.The non -stimula for exports reflects that external demand on European economic growth is significantly declining, and the atrophy of imports further confirmed the downturn of its internal demand. Under dual pressure, the downside risk of European economy is still accumulating.

It is expected to rebound gently in 2024, but the road to recovery or rugged

   The European Commission predicted that the growth rate of the EU and the euro zone GDP in 2023 in the 2023 European Economic Autumn Outlook Report released in November last year was 0.6%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the summer forecast value.At the same time, the report believes that with the recovery of future consumption, the rise in actual salary, and the rise of external demand, the European economy will have a moderate rebound from 2024. It is expected that the EU and the euro zone GDP growth will reach 1.3%and 1.2%, but both0.1 percentage points lower than the summer forecast.In 2025, if the inflation subsided and the interest rate policy relaxes, the European economy will accelerate again, and the growth of GDP in the EU and the euro zone is expected to rise to 1.7%and 1.6%.Although the report has given Europe a relatively optimistic economic picture, the judgment is relatively pessimistic from a more accurate short -term forecast.

   On the one hand, economic downturn is expected to come from multiple uncertainty risks.There is an uncertainty for the intensity and speed of monetary policy and the sustainability of inflation. High interest rates have suppressed market demand. The uncertain supply shock can also cause European inflation factors to change, resulting in continuous pressure on economic activities and entering stagnation.

   On the other hand, the "leader" of the traditional European economy is becoming a "tail of a crane", dragging down the overall recovery process.According to the European Economic Autumn Outlook Report in 2023, the economy of 10 member states is expected to decline in 2023, of which the German GDP of the largest economy in the European Union decreased by 0.4%, while Germany expected to increase by 0.8%in 2024, and rose to 1.2%in 2025.1.3%and 1.5%of the early predictions of the German government are even more pessimistic.Factors such as slow private consumption recovery, bleak real estate industry, bottlenecks such as foreign trade are "eating" the economic growth momentum of Germany, becoming the "shortcomings" of the European economy.

Economic policy ideology may hinder European economic recovery process

   The Russian -Ukraine conflict has not yet ended, the Palestinian -Israeli sculpture smoke has resurrected, and the threat of European energy supply has risen again. In addition, the frequency of extreme weather, European green development has become more urgent, and the internal driving force will be further enhanced.In September 2023, the European Commission Chairman Feng Delin emphasized in the last Lord of the Lord during his term that she will accelerate the implementation of the current climate initiative to complete a series of proposed but unsolved regulations.On November 20, 2023, the EU Council approved the European EU budget in 2024. The total amount of new budget was about 189.385 billion euros, and the total expenditure was about 142.63 billion euros. Promoting green transformation was still its key support direction.Under the blessing of political will and policy leaders, the EU's investment in green transformation in 2024 will increase.It is worth noting that the EU actively expands the green cooperation with the so -called "like -minded partners". Driven by the ideology of green development and excessive security, the EU may increase its green campization and groupization.Negative impacts are worthy of attention.

   At the same time, "de -risk" has become a leading issue in the EU's economic and trade field.Although the EU emphasizes the purpose of "de -risk" to enhance its own economic pressure resistance, its actual nature is tantamount to selecting protective policy barriers in sensitivity areas such as high -tech and information security, and promoting "While the "key commodity supply chain in the camp is diversified, it will continue to enjoy the supply of external market scale and low -sensitive product supply.At present, "de -risk" has become a replacement word for the weakening of the "detachable chain" confrontation, but its reduction of dependence on China has gradually become clear.In the first three quarters of 2023, the trade volume of China -Europe was 556.1 billion euros, a year -on -year decrease of 13.4%, of which the EU's imports from China decreased by 17.5%.In 2024, China -Europe trade relations will enter a critical moment. If the EU continues its political and security -oriented trade policy, the competitive factors of both parties will further amplify, and the trade losses caused by trade friction will also make the European economy bear moreThe downlink pressure made it a bit of recovery.

(Author: Han Meng unit: European Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

最新回复 (2)
2024-03-05 02:44
引用 1
2024-03-05 02:12
引用 2
2024-03-05 01:52
引用 3
返回
发新帖
103811
主题数
2502
帖子数
89820
用户数
103811
在线
90
友情链接: